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Saturday, September 10, 2016

Elon Musk Asks Twitter For Help In Finding Cause of SpaceX Explosion (gizmodo.com)

Ok...around these here parts we love a good conspiracy!


When I first heard that the SpaceX rocket launch recently had exploded on the launch pad, my first thought was that someone did it.

I mean that I did not even once feel like it was accidental.

I sat there thinking on it and could not shake the idea that it was somehow planned.

Well now news comes in that perhaps I was right in my own semi-prophetic inclination.

***

On September 1, SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket exploded on the launch pad at Cape Canaveral, Florida, and destroyed the AMOS-6 satellite that belonged to Facebook, which was going to be used to beam internet to developing parts of the world.


Since the cause for the explosion has yet to be solved, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is asking for help via Twitter. Slashdot reader Thelasko writes:

Elon Musk stated on Twitter last night, "Still working on the Falcon fireball investigation.

 Turning out to be the most difficult and complex failure we have ever had in 14 years." 

He went on to say,

 "Important to note that this happened during a routine filling operation. 

Engines were not on and there was no apparent heat source."

 Other Tweets mention a "bang" sound before the fire, and that SpaceX "have not ruled out" the possibility that something struck the rocket.

***

So there you have it folks.

 The makings of a good conspiracy.

One armchair rocket scientist responded:



"It's trickier than that.

 They were loading LOX. 

There was no RP1 in the upper stage yet. 

So why did the LOX explode?

I've read a fair bit on LOX handling, and while it's tamer than, say, HTP, there are some risks in handling it. 

The biggest one is contamination - which has taken down craft in the past. Most notably, the X-1A and X-1D were taken down by a contamination from a chemical used in the manufacture of their gaskets. 

 Most organics are incompatible with LOX and become contact sensitive, including - wait for it - tending to be set off by pressure changes.

Another issue is the tank itself. 

 LOX is compatible with most aluminum alloys, hence aluminum is frequently used for LOX tankage. 

However, there are some caveats.

 One, it must be well cleaned in a proscribed manner, due to the aforementioned contamination issues.

 Furthermore, it must have an intact oxide layer. 

If the oxide layer is damaged (bending, stretching, shearing, overaggressive cleaning) or never formed, it must be exposed to atmospheric air and allowed to reform; it begins reforming immediately but takes about three days to reach maximum thickness (slowing with time). 

 Bare aluminum is still not hypergolic, but it is impact sensitive with LOX. 

 It can also be set off by the same phenomenon that damages the tank - for example, heavy warping, which can create localized hot spots.

Contamination is generally considered more of a concern, however (particularly since SpaceX uses aluminum-lithium, which is more resistant to impact/pressure-induced explosion with LOX than non-lithium alloys). 

That said, regardless of what causes the initial burn, if temperatures are high enough, the aluminum will burn, and it burns very aggressively.

 Indeed, it was the addition of aluminum powder that revolutionized solid rocket propellants (powdered to make it easier to ignite and burn completely, as well as to blend), giving them a major simultaneous improvement in ISP, thrust, propellant density, and burn quality. 

 Aluminum has such a high affinity for oxygen that it also burns in CO2 and water, stripping the oxygen from them. 

 The general way firefighters put out large aluminum fires is.... they don't.

All of that said, these sort of problems are rare.

 Which makes one wonder about the unusual factor in SpaceX's case: densified/superchilled propellants. SpaceX is the only major launcher to use them, and the behavior of superchilled LOX isn't anywhere near as well studied as that of LOX at its boiling point.

 It changes what may liquify or freeze in contact with it, it changes the flexibility or fracture properties of physical components on contact with it, it has a higher viscosity, etc. 

Things that freeze into it could melt/boil as the LOX warms up as well. 

So it obviously draws the question, is this problem a result of the use of superchilled LOX, some unanticipated effect in the production / storage / delivery system that led to problems within the tank, or an unexpected reaction within the tank itself?

A tinfoil hat type responded:

Why is everyone in denial about the object that obviously flies over the rocket from frame right to left at exactly the same time as the explosion. 

Even Musk states that they don't know what happened and that someone heard something hit the rocket.

 It could even have been a drone, or a deliberate act of sabotage, but *someone* has to look at the video in more detail and determine whether it's a real thing, or just a bug!!!!!

Another conspiracy lover remarked:

My money would be on a .50 cal Anti Material Rifle. 

It was an Israeli satellite.

 A quarter-billion dollars would be a juicy target for the Palestinians.

The fire originated around the upper stage oxidizer tank, which would be the logical choice of target to shoot at. 

Leaking fuel isn't necessarily dangerous. 

Leaking oxidizer will make everything in the area kindling for the tiniest of sparks.

And this conspiracy officiator says:

 I'd go for Russia.

 Right now they are one of the very few countries with heavy lift capability, and I'm sure they would like to stay that way.

 A private space launch industry is a threat to that position, and the strategic power that it brings. 

They also have more experience than the Palestinians in covert ops, and experts in rocket engineering who can pinpoint the 'shoot here for massive damage' spot.

***

Well there you have it, the conspiracy is starting to move along nicely.

It's gonna be fun for us conspiracy lovers to watch this one grow and spin out of control.

Muhaha!

Video of the explosion

 

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